UK: Unemployment rate to come in unchanged at 4.6% for April - TDS

Today we get UK labour market data April/May and markets are looking for the unemployment rate to come in unchanged at 4.6% for April, but analysts at TDS think that it could slip to 4.5% instead as the higher Jan reading of 4.73% falls out of the 3m MA.

Key Quotes

“For wage growth, we look for ex-bonus wages to slip to 2.0% y/y in April, although the risks likely lie toward a slightly stronger reading due to the minimum wage hike during the month. Lastly, we’ll be keeping an eye on jobless claims for May, after claims posted their steepest 2-month rise since 2011 in March-April. We think that UK consumers can probably manage to keep spending afloat as they work through the squeeze in real wages, but if job losses begin to build, then that would leave us considerably more worried.”