Australian Q1 GDP forecast lowered to 0.2% q/q vs 0.4% - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac are out with their responses on the Australian current account data, highlighting its implications on the first quarter Aus growth numbers due tomorrow.

Key Quotes:

We have downgraded our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 0.2%qtr, 1.6%yr - lowered from 0.4%qtr.

The GDP headline figure is an average of three estimates - expenditure, income and production.

The GDP expenditure measure appears to be quite weak, at 0.0% on our calculations.

The arithmetic is domestic demand 0.3%, inventories +0.4ppts and net exports -0.7ppts.

Weather disruptions, hitting home building and exports, have had a significant impact.

We expect consumer spending to be relatively subdued, at 0.5%qtr.

The GDP income measure appears to be more positive at around 0.6%qtr.

We have opted to gravitate our GDP average forecast towards our view on expenditure, for which we have more but still incomplete information.