Australia: Modest seaborne export growth in iron ore continues – Westpac

Rob Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that Australian iron ore exports for May so far are telling a story of continued modest growth as after an estimated 68.73mt of iron ore exports in April (up 1.68%3myy), May port activity suggests 70.99mt (up 3.78%3myy).

 Key Quotes

“Adding a bit of weight to the rising global supply theme, exports from Brazil for the month of May so far also suggest modest growth. After an estimated 29.6mt of iron ore exports in April, port activity suggests 31.8mt for the month of May. That would imply a modest 1.29%3myy rate of growth for iron ore exports from Brazil, although this remains well below market expectations given additional supply from S11D.”

“If we combine the two estimates, we arrive at a 2.5%3myy rate of growth of exports from Australia and Brazil implying fairly modest growth in seaborne supply from the two key exporters.”

“Coal exports recover after Cyclone Debbie hit

Australian coal exports are continuing the recovery after the hit from cyclone Debbie. The current run rate for May is 31.5mt, up 9.9mt after being down 9mt in April due to flooding. However, even with that recovery, export volumes are still down close to -1.8%yy.”