France: Macron is the ultimate winner - BBH

Analysts at BBH explain that Macron is going to be the next president of France and the euro is down today due in part to profit-taking, as the overall significance of his win cannot be known with any degree of confidence until next month's parliamentary election.  

Key Quotes

“Macron comes from the pro-business wing of the French Socialist Party.  The Socialist Party is, in essence, a social democrat party, with the propensity to create factions and new parties.  Macron's departure to launch his own party removed a key obstacle to the fundos-wing taking control of the Socialist brand that had been driven into disrepute by the unpopular Hollande.”

“French national interests do not change from election to election.  It is a debtor nation that often expresses the interests of debtor countries.  It is a check on Germany and the interests of the creditors. Macron, like Merkel, Renzi (and Gentiloni), and Rajoy, are pro-Europe but attach somewhat different meanings to Europe.”

“France follows Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands in turning back a populist-nationalist challenge.  In recent council elections in the UK, the populist-nationalist UKIP was nearly wiped out.  Its single issue agenda has been co-opted by the Tories.  The French results reaffirm our belief that populists will win only when supported by a center right party.  On their own, they fare poorly.”

“It is still not clear how Trump will govern.  He plays to the populist-nationalists, even when he does not have to, such as endorsing Le Pen.  Yet in many ways, he is governing like what the FT's Martin Wolf dubbed a post-Reagan Republican.”