NFP to increase by 185k in April - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that for nonfarm payrolls they expect nonfarm employment to increase by 185k in April, with private payrolls increasing by 180k and government payrolls contributing 5k. 

Key Quotes:

"Our forecast derives from examining the underlying trend and a variety of labor market indicators. Smoothing the monthly bumps, payrolls increased an average of 178k in the first three months of 2017, up from the 148k average gain in Q4, similar to the result we derive using more sophisticated filters.

Today’s ADP employment report (+177k in April) was in line with expectations (Nomura: 180k, Consensus: 175k) and appears consistent with our forecast. Perhaps, the most surprising was a relatively minor revision to March, which was lowered to 255k from 263k, implying that the gap between BLS and ADP remains.

We will see if this portends an upward revision to the official estimates by the BLS in March. Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims, near historical lows, have recently stabilized. We have found that the deviation from the trend in UI claims is a useful metric for forecasting deviations in trend employment. UI claims have recently stabilized near their trend and remain supportive to our forecast."