US: Q1 GDP release likely to confirm a slowdown - TDS

In view of the analysts at TDS, the advance GDP release from US is likely to confirm a slowdown to a below-trend pace.

Key Quotes

“We are roughly in line with the market consensus and look for a 1.3% print, reflecting sub-par consumer spending and a drag from net exports. The reading would be in stark contrast to relatively bullish survey data, though we note that residual seasonality is partly at play. Because of this, the Fed is likely to look through below-trend Q1 growth given robust labor market conditions.”

“US Congress Continuing Resolution

Congress needs to pass another continuing resolution to fund the US federal government by midnight on Friday, April 28, in order to avoid a government shutdown. If the past is any guide, negotiations will drag on to the last minute. A bill that satisfies both House Republicans and Senate Democrats will be difficult. We think an 11th-hour bipartisan agreement will be reached, but a shutdown lasting a few days remains a risk.”