NZ: Monthly net migrant arrivals held firm in March near all-time highs - ANZ

Phil Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ, explains that the monthly net migrant arrivals held firm in March near all-time highs for New Zealand.

Key Quotes

“We can’t see that picture changing much, at least for some time. Although migration is now increasingly in the political spotlight, recent visa requirement changes are unlikely to have a noticeable impact for some time yet.”

“Seasonally adjusted visitor arrivals rebounded after falling in February. The underlying trend has admittedly flattened. But with key events (the World Masters Games that got underway in Auckland last weekend and the British and Irish Lions rugby tour just around the corner), we expect to see decent arrivals figures over the coming months.”

“Key Points

• At 6,100, the seasonally adjusted net migrant inflow remained strong in March, and close to all-time highs. Net inflows have effectively held around this level for the past six months now, lifting the annual total close to 72k – or over 1½% of the resident population. 
• After rising to the highest level since mid-2014 in February, permanent and long-term (PLT) departures fell sharply in March. We weren’t convinced that the prior lift was the start of a new trend, and today’s data shows we were right to be sceptical. In seasonally adjusted terms, PLT departures fell 6.7% m/m in March. PLT arrivals also fell, but only modestly so, and on an annual basis, the story remains unchanged, with the 129.5k arrivals dominated by those on work visas (34%), NZ & Australian citizens (29%) and students (18%), although the latter continues to ease. 
• Seasonally adjusted visitor arrivals rose 1.5% m/m sa, reversing February’s dip. Annual growth is now flat, but that reflects contrasting signals from lower Australian arrivals (perhaps related to the timing of school holidays) and strong growth from the likes of the US, Europe (ex UK) and some Asian nations. Chinese arrivals are up 4% y/y. 
• The broader trend in arrivals has moderated. More than anything that probably reflects capacity issues. However, we expect ongoing lifts in arrivals numbers over the coming months supported by the lift in the weekly China-NZ flight cap and due to key events (the World Masters Games and British and Irish Lions rugby tour).”