France: What’s next in store? - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank points out that in two weeks, on Sunday the 7th of May, the second round of the presidential elections will take place and whoever gets more than 50% wins the French presidency.

Key Quotes

“Inauguration will then usually take place within ten days with much ceremonial aplomb. The President is constitutionally free to appoint a Prime Minister who then forms a government. In practice, though, the President needs parliamentary consent for this appointment since the French government is responsible to parliament. Since neither candidate has a majority in the French parliament (National Assembly), the upcoming elections on that front will be important to watch. The legislative election for each of the over 500 seats for the Assembly will be held on the 11th (first round) and 18th of June (second and final round). It was scheduled in this way so that the new President would always have a workable majority in Parliament. However, since neither of the candidates has any prospect of winning a majority, these elections will become instrumental in determining the domestic and thereby economic success of their presidency.”

“The Presidential campaign will now most likely intensify as both candidates will focus more on their differences. Traditionally we will at least see one big television debate before the second round, which could lead to shifts in the current polls in case of a slip of the tongue of one of the remaining candidates. Secondly, scandals surrounding either candidate could emerge. Especially Macron’s support is untested on this front. Finally, the polls of the second round this year have the potential of being less informative as it carries the potential to be more surprising than the first round due to lower turnout.”