Is the 7 May second-round polling likely to change in the next two weeks? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that the second-round polling so far has been largely hypothetical as undecided voters or those who are disappointed not to see their candidate making it into the second round will now be making their choices in full knowledge of the options. 

Key Quotes:

"So as undecided or disappointed voters do so, they move the polling. In the last two elections we have seen a “Sarkozy swing” toward the centre-right candidate, but as this election is being fought on less of a left-right divide we should not necessarily expect the same. 

Looking through the history of second-round polling since the 1980s, even if we see the typical narrowing of 5% or so it will not be enough to worry the market. The large leads Mr Macron has in the second round in excess of 25% provide the market with that comfort as it is more than double the typical margin of error for polling leads."