When are the RBA minutes released and how could they affect AUD/USD?

RBA meeting minutes overview

The minutes are scheduled for 0130GMT today. The RBA policy decision was expected to be firmly on hold the last meeting around and came in as expected.  Following March's less bullish minutes on the economy due to household incomes and a fragile jobs market, investors will be looking for continuity considering the recent commentary from officials and previous dovish statement.

Since the meeting, there have been comments from RBA's governor, Lowe, explained that the Global outlook was better, but explained that the supply side of housing needs to be addressed. Governor Lowe also criticised the nation’s banks for having lax lending practices, adding that regulators are prepared to take more macro-prudential measures to limit this.  In other words, the bank is in no hurry to hike rates and this is what the market will be looking for in the minutes. Anything that is less dovish than the statement could be positive for the Aussie. 

How could affect AUD/USD?

With the market fully pricing in a no change to rates for the rest of this year, any surprises in the language of the minutes, either way, could move the market significantly. On of the largest ranges in the Aussie seen over events related to the RBA were over 175 pips on a 4hr chart basis back in 2015. 

However, the minutes could offer additional insights to the RBA's current mindset in regards to key areas such as the Aussie, USD, commodities, housing, inflation and the job market in particular; with any significant variations to the previous language in the statement or previous minutes around those subjects could be a catalyst. AUD/USD has been neutralising around the 0.76 handle in a wide range between 0.7750 and 0.7470 this year so far. An upside surprise from the meeting could eye a break towards 0.7740/80 resistance area while on the flip side, 0.7538 and the 200-d EMA could be a target.

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.