UK: Unemployment rate (3M average) expected to be unchanged at 4.7% for March – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank explain that in the UK, the labour market report for March is due and they estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) will be unchanged at 4.7% while they also estimate that the annual growth rate in average weekly earnings (3M average) declined to 2.0% y/y from 2.3% y/y.

Key Quotes

“The combination of higher inflation and slower wage growth means real wage growth is turning negative, implying less scope for private consumption growth. This is one of the reasons why we expect UK GDP growth to slow this year. Indeed, we have seen the first signs that this is actually happening. In recent months, retail sales have plunged the most since the financial crisis and although it is a weak indicator, it is a sign that private consumption growth has actually slowed.”