Forex Today: AUD slumps, EUR bounces in Asia, PMIs in focus

A quiet start to the NFP week ahead amid holiday-thinned trades (China off), with the Aussie sold-off into poor retail sales data, which showed a bigger-than expected drop. Meanwhile, the Kiwi weakened, despite upbeat economic indicators reflected in the NZ Treasury’s monthly report. The common currency was the top gainer amid an extension of the corrective slide in the US dollar, after last week’s rally.

Attention now turns towards a flurry of final manufacturing PMI reports from the Euro area, followed by the UK Manufacturing PMI report due on the cards in Europe. Later in the NA session, a set of manufacturing reports from the US will be published alongside Canada’s, while the BOC business outlook survey and FOMC member Dudley’s speech will also take center-stage in the day ahead.

Main topics in Asia

NZ Treasury: GDP growth slowed in Q4 2016, but expected to recover over 2017

The Forecasting and Monitoring team in the NZ Treasury published their latest Monthly Economic Indicators March 2017 (MEI) earlier on the day.

Australia's Feb retail sales misses expectations

Australia's Feb retail sales came worse-than-expeced at -0.1% vs 0.3% exp and 0.4% last.

Australia Building Permits (YoY) increased to -4.9% in February from previous -12%

PBOC net liquidity injection amounted to CNY 618.99 billion in March

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) refrained from injecting liquidity in the 7 trading sessions through Saturday, but that did not change the broader monthly picture which shows a net liquidity injection of CNY 618.99 billion. 

Key focus for the day/ week ahead

EUR/USD flirts with highs near 1.0680 ahead of PMIs

The bulls take a breather over the last hours, stalling the Asian recovery in EUR/USD from just ahead of the mid-point of 1.06 handle. Markets look forward to the manufacturing PMI reports lined up for release from both continents later today.

UK: Scope for a small gain in Manufacturing PMI for March - TDS

UK manufacturing PMI has fallen in 4 of the last 5 months, but both analysts at TDS and markets see scope for a small gain in March. 

Nonfarm payrolls: increased by 175k in March? - Nomura

"We expect nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 175k in March. For private payrolls, we forecast an increase of 170k, implying government payrolls increased by 5k.”

What's the focus for NZD/USD this week?  - ANZ

 "Focus this week will be on US data, Fed minutes and further political developments.”