US data reviewed, supporing the greenback - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a recap and review of the US data that supported the dollar.

Key Quotes:

"Initial jobless claims: Initial claims remained steady at 258k for the week ending 25 March. While slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 247k, today’s reading comes in just below last week’s 261k and remains close to the downward trend we’ve seen during the recovery. The four-week moving average ticked up slightly to 254k from 247k. For the week ending 18 March, continuing claims increased 65k to 2052k after dropping by 38k the week before. Both initial and continuing claims remain near their lows during the recovery, indicating that businesses continue to hold on to workers in a healthy labor market. We expect this series to remain low as the labor market continues to show strength. 

Q4 GDP, third estimate: The third estimate of Q4 GDP was revised up by two-tenths to 2.1% from a preliminary estimate of 1.9% (Consensus: 2.0%, Nomura: 1.9%). Relative to our forecast, household service consumption and inventory investment came in a little stronger than expected. Excluding those components, major subcomponents of GDP were broadly in line with our expectations. Looking forward, more inventory accumulation in Q4 means less output in Q1, which could detract from economic growth in Q1. 

Q1 GDP tracking update: Stronger-than-expected inventory accumulation in Q4 raised the jumping-off point for inventory investment in Q1, which was negative to Q1 GDP. As a result, our Q1 GDP tracking estimate was revised lower by one-tenth to 1.0% from 1.1%. Note that we will update Q1 GDP tracking again after the February personal spending, along with a revised monthly profile for prior months, is released tomorrow."