AUD/USD: Multi-year decline completed - Westpac

Tim Riddell, Resarch Analyst at Westpac, is assessing the price structures in the AUD/USD for 1Q 2017.

• DAILY
  • A standard, but deep, correction has formed from 0.7750. Daily momentum is relatively neutral, but rebounds lack impulse
  • A close above 0.7700 is needed to re-instate the redefining of range resistance. A fall below 0.7580 would suggest that range resistance has been confirmed
• WEEKLY
  • Recent gains are seen as defining broad range resistance. A spike above 0.7830 could still occur, but would be seen as completing the defining of range resistance
  • Although weekly momentum remains supportive, it appears to be “maturing”. This would affirm the bias for range trading and raise the potential for deep pullbacks
• MONTHLY
  • Patterns and long term momentum remain consistent with a base having formed into 2016 but also that a broad consolidation/trading range is forming
  • AUD strength should be considered as temporary and defining consolidation resistance. Bias is still for deep pullbacks into 2H’17