21 Jan 2014
Flash: Above 102.48/08 broader uptrend incomplete - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Bali) - The first major JPY down-cycle is pretty mature but looks to be missing one leg for completion, notes Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan Securities.
Key Quotes
"In terms of determining where we are in the long-term downtrend of the JPY, the USD/JPY chart is the most meaningful to look at as its structures, following the triangle breakout last November, are very well defined."
"Based on that we see at least one leg up (internal wave 5' or 5”) missing as long as massive support between 102.47/22/08 (int. 38.2 % on 3 scales) and 101.54 (internal wave 1 top) is not taken out."
"To confirm a 5th wave advance towards higher targets at 105.65/106.68 (monthly Ichimokulagging/monthly trend) and 110.67 (pivot) though, it takes a break above 104.86/105.15 (minor 76.4 %/daily trend).
Key Quotes
"In terms of determining where we are in the long-term downtrend of the JPY, the USD/JPY chart is the most meaningful to look at as its structures, following the triangle breakout last November, are very well defined."
"Based on that we see at least one leg up (internal wave 5' or 5”) missing as long as massive support between 102.47/22/08 (int. 38.2 % on 3 scales) and 101.54 (internal wave 1 top) is not taken out."
"To confirm a 5th wave advance towards higher targets at 105.65/106.68 (monthly Ichimokulagging/monthly trend) and 110.67 (pivot) though, it takes a break above 104.86/105.15 (minor 76.4 %/daily trend).