21 Jan 2014
Flash: EUR/USD, high probability 2012-2013 countertrend rally complete - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Bali) - Although slowly taking shape, the assumed EUR/USD downtrend has not been confirmed yet, notes Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan Securities.
Key Quotes
"Displaying a fairly well-defined 5-wave pattern in the first initial sell-off from 1.3893 to 1.3548 and having already broken a former wave 1 top 1.3577 we see a high probability that the 2012-2013 countertrend rally is complete."
"An extension up for a test of 1.3912/18 (monthly trend/monthly Ichimoku-lagging) and possibly to 1.4259/83 (int. 76.4 %/pivot) can however not be excluded as long as key-support between 1.3548/16 (last low/daily trend) and 1.3468/36 (daily Ichimoku-lagging/minor 76.4 %) has not been broken."
"Below the latter though, we’d see the B-wave top at 1.3893 as confirmed which would expose 1.3295, 1.3104 and 1.3024 (pivots/76.4 % on higher scale) next."
"Ultimately though we expect weekly trend line supports between 1.3140 and 1.2829 to give way in favor of a test of the key-T-junction on big scale at 1.2479 (76.4 %)."
"In the short-run though and as long as the last low at 1.3548 holds, there is room for a minor 2nd wave rebound to 1.3812 (minor 76.4 %) which would offer a good risk reward selling opportunity."
Key Quotes
"Displaying a fairly well-defined 5-wave pattern in the first initial sell-off from 1.3893 to 1.3548 and having already broken a former wave 1 top 1.3577 we see a high probability that the 2012-2013 countertrend rally is complete."
"An extension up for a test of 1.3912/18 (monthly trend/monthly Ichimoku-lagging) and possibly to 1.4259/83 (int. 76.4 %/pivot) can however not be excluded as long as key-support between 1.3548/16 (last low/daily trend) and 1.3468/36 (daily Ichimoku-lagging/minor 76.4 %) has not been broken."
"Below the latter though, we’d see the B-wave top at 1.3893 as confirmed which would expose 1.3295, 1.3104 and 1.3024 (pivots/76.4 % on higher scale) next."
"Ultimately though we expect weekly trend line supports between 1.3140 and 1.2829 to give way in favor of a test of the key-T-junction on big scale at 1.2479 (76.4 %)."
"In the short-run though and as long as the last low at 1.3548 holds, there is room for a minor 2nd wave rebound to 1.3812 (minor 76.4 %) which would offer a good risk reward selling opportunity."