When is Aussie Q4 GDP and how could this affect AUD/USD?

Aussie GDP Q4 Overview

We have the Australian: Q4 GDP that is forecasted to increase 0.9% as the economy rebounds following a contraction of 0.5% in Q3, as explained by analysts at Westpac, "Partials have been mixed with inventories coming in below expectations and net exports moderate, whereas company profits and public demand surged. This has led to a revised Q4 GDP equated by 0.8% domestic demand, 0.2% net exports, -0.2% inventories and a statistical discrepancy of 0.1% due to the higher GDP income estimate."

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD has already been sold off in recent trade on a resurgence of the dollar and indeed the Fed speakers who came across hawkish with Williams, albeit a nonvoting member for the FOMC, stating that a case can be made for a March hike. The price has fallen away from 0.7692 to a low of 07645 and breaking below the recent formed sideways channel support line. Therefore, the GDP data could further extend the downside on a miss in expectations given the previous quarter's poor performance and speculation that the RBA would need to cut interest rates. An inline outcome or anything better than expected would bring the 0.77 handle back into the picture and a break of 0.7720 opens the recent YTD highs at 0.7740, especially when considering the account balance outcome from yesterday.

Key Notes

Aussie current account balance a plus for the Aussie - Nomura

"The relative improvement in Australia’s current account position is a positive for AUD from both flow and valuation perspectives." 

About Aussie GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the AUD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.