US: Focus on business surveys this week - Natixis

Research Team at Natixis suggests that in the United States, the focus will be on business surveys this week and a few regional indicators and both ISM surveys are due for the month of February.

Key Quotes

“So far, regional indices suggest that the ISM manufacturing will gain more momentum rising from 56.0 to 56.5. Yet, we expect a slight contraction in the ISM nonmanufacturing from 56.5 to 55.7. Meanwhile, we expect Q4 GDP growth to be revised upward from 1.9% to 2.3% QoQ ar in the second estimate in line with newly available statistics on consumption (QSS, retail sales) and trade.”

“On the front of consumption we expect nominal spending to increase by a solid 0.5% MoM in January, faster than the disposable income (+0.3%) with as a result a slight decline to the savings rate to 5.1%. Yet, given the sharp increase in consumer prices during the month, we expect a stagnation in real consumption.”

“Even though the usual determinants of confidence remain upbeat (low initial jobless claims, higher stock market and stable gasoline prices), we expect a slight contraction in the consumer confidence index of the Conference Board (from 111.8 to 111). The deterioration should be driven by expectations. Durable goods orders are expected to increase by a solid 2.5% MoM in January driven by the transportation sector (aircraft orders) and core orders (+0.6% expected). We will also follow closely J. Yellen’s comments on Friday.”