“Trade war” making noise while EM exports quietly improve – Goldman Sachs

According to Ian Tomb, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, with US President-elect Trump’s inauguration, the downside risk to EM exports from US protectionism is making headlines.

Key Quotes

“Against this backdrop, EM export growth quietly improved in 2016. Much of this has reflected a commodity price recovery from the 2014 oil shock but the improvement has also involved non-commodity exporting Ems and a pick-up in China-to-US trade flows in 2016H2.”

“As the incoming US administration transitions from rhetoric to policy, it will be crucial to see if this EM export momentum is maintained in 2017H1 and to what extent EM assets benefit from improving US (and global) growth.”