China is the big story in 2017 – Nomura

Bilal Hafeez, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that the China has its 19th National Congress of the Communist Party in autumn next year which is likely to be amongst the biggest stories of that year.

Key Quotes

“Held every five years, the Congress elects the new leadership of the Communist Party, which includes the key appointments of the General Secretary and members of the Politburo Standing Committee. We think there is little doubt that Xi Jinping will remain General Secretary, but there is more uncertainty on the Standing Committee composition. Xi Jinping’s attempts to end party factionalism have been disruptive. President Xi may therefore introduce a large fiscal stimulus programme early next year to buttress his support. Ironically, China’s, rather than the US’s, fiscal stimulus may end up being the bigger story next year. This would likely benefit commodity-linked markets.”