US: Jobless claims, PCE deflator, durable goods and spending data in the limelight – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank suggests that focus today will be on a broad string of US data with core PCE deflator, durable goods orders, personal spending and jobless claims data lined up for release.

Key Quotes

“The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, is expected to stay flat at 1.7% y/y, which should not bring any change to the Fed outlook. Core PCE inflation has been on a steady rising path this year, lifting from the low last year at 1.3%. Inflation pressures are rising gradually as the job market is tightening and commodity prices have moved higher. Personal spending released in the same report is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% m/m and has shown a moderation in recent months after a summer boost to spending.”

“The US will also release the durable goods orders, a key indicator for investment growth. Investment is expected to see a lift from the poor levels seen throughout most of 2016 as the drag from energy is fading. Note, though, that the orders data is very volatile - so look at the trend rather than one month's number. Finally, initial jobless claims will give further clues as to how strong the US is finishing 2016. Claims have hovered around 255,000 in recent weeks, pointing to robust job growth.”