US: Where will growth come from? – Deutsche Bank

In the wake of the US election, Research Team at Deutsche Bank, has raised their 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts because of the high likelihood of meaningful pro-growth fiscal stimulus.

Key Quotes

“We expect the stimulus package to increase growth most meaningfully in the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. As a result, we forecast that real output growth will reach 3.0% next year and then climb further to 3.3% in 2018. The latter would be the fastest growth rate since 2003, which is when the second phase of the Bush tax cuts was implemented.”

“The expected step up in aggregate private demand, is expected to occur primarily via business investment and more modestly via consumer spending. Growth is also likely to be boosted by improved infrastructure and defense spending.”