BoC universally expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged – RBC CM

The BoC is universally expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 0.50% at Wednesday’s statement-only meeting (no MPR or forecast update), notes Research Team at RBC Capital Markets.

Key Quotes

“Q3 growth came in marginally above the BoC’s forecast at 3.5% q/q annualized, with household consumption (1.5pp add) contributing more than expected, while business fixed investment (0.35pp add) was below our expectations. Combined with Governor Poloz’s comments on Monday, there is little to suggest that the BoC’s view has changed since the October MPR, including wider than usual bands of uncertainty around their projection. Recent increases in crude oil prices have not taken them significantly above the US$46/bbl level (for WTI) assumed in October and should have limited policy impact at current levels.”