Oil remains fragile on OPEC prospects

WTI remains offered at the start of the week as doubts over the OPEC meeting hit the wires at the end of last week's trade.

Markets have been focused on the OPEC meeting that was scheduled to take place in Vienna with an objective to cut production costs, but the Saudies decided they won't attend, according to Reuters and this news took the price way down on Friday to the lowest level since 17th November.  Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the January light sweet crude oil futures contract's 14% rally since November 14 appears to have run out of steam:  

"Optimism about the ability of OPEC and non-OPEC countries faded in recent sessions. The people playing up the likelihood of an agreement came from parties that might not participate in output cuts like Iran and Russia (reports suggested Iraq could participate).  

Then before the weekend, Saudi Arabia indicated that it would not attend a key meeting at the start of next week between OPEC and non-OPEC members amid disputes with Iran and Iraq over output cuts.   At the same time, reports suggest Libyan output is set to increase markedly, and several non-OPEC producers also appear likely to boost output. Late longs were peeled off as the price dropped 3.6%, retracing 50% of its rally since November 14.  A break and maybe $47.50 may signal a move back to $45, if not lower."