EUR: Second round of the French Republican primary takes place on Sunday – RBC CM

Adam Cole, Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the second round of the French Republican primary takes place on Sunday.

Key Quotes

“Polls and betting odds put Fillon far ahead of Juppé. The winner of Sunday’s poll will go forward to the first round of the election (April 23). If, as expected, the centre left are wiped out in the first round, he will then go on to face Marine Le Pen head-to-head in the second round (May 7). Markets (proxied by betting odds) attach a fairly significant (~22%) probability to Le Pen winning, which would of course be a very EUR-negative event.”