Australia: Loss of momentum in some key high frequency indicators - NAB

Research Team at NAB, suggests that there has been a loss of momentum in some key high frequency indicators, but at this stage, the deterioration is not yet enough to warrant a significant change in the Australia’s economic outlook.

Key Quotes

“Our real GDP forecasts have been revised slightly, mainly due to lower starting point for Q3 2016 with partial data suggesting a large subtraction from net exports. We now expect real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2016, 2.7% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to hover between 5.5% and 5¾% through the forecast horizon. These forecasts are somewhat more cautious than the RBA, especially in 2018.”

“Further growth in coking coal prices has raised our 2016-17 forecasts for the terms of trade and nominal income in recent months. These forecasts were finalised prior to the US election, and do not incorporate the impact on financial markets, the global economy or Australian economy from the result.”