Trump: threats to regional security in Asia - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that Trump’s pledge to bolster the US military presence in the region amounts to a commitment to pursue the current US policy of the strategic pivot, under which 60% of US naval forces are to be deployed in the Pacific Basin by 2020.

Key Quotes:

"However, there seems a potential contradiction here.

Trump has also committed to force America's allies − including, specifically, Japan and South Korea − to meet the full cost of the security guarantees provided by the US. At the very least, US foreign policy in Asia has suddenly become significantly more unpredictable.

If the US bolsters its military presence in Asia, it risks butting heads against a more assertive China. On the other hand, trimming the existing military presence back until its cost is covered in full by the host country’s existing contribution, or closing US bases and withdrawing forces completely, could embolden China to further increase its foreign policy assertiveness in the region. In the worst case, trade wars and geopolitical tensions could feed of each other.

Alastair Newton, co-founder of Alavan Business Advisory, a geopolitical consultancy to Nomura, notes that the potential flashpoints in Asia include:

South China Sea: On 12 July a UN tribunal ruled against China more harshly than most had anticipated in a case brought by the Philippines challenging China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. But since then, under new Philippine President Duterte, China- Philippine relations have improved. That said, China has disputed territorial claims with many other Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea that could become flashpoints if the US changes its foreign policy approach to Asia.

Korean peninsula: The possibility of the withdrawal of US forces from South Korea would dramatically alter the balance of power at what is already a very delicate time as Pyongyang closes in on a genuine long-range nuclear capability.

Taiwan Strait: If the US were to withdraw from Korea and Japan, Taiwan would certainly be significantly more vulnerable (it has no US bases itself). That said, Trump may be more restricted in what he could do here since it is a piece of congressional legislation – the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act – that is at the heart of Taiwan’s US security guarantees."