All roads lead towards the US Elections today – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the main event this week is undoubtedly the US presidential election today and it is much too early to rule out a Trump victory even if Sunday's FBI clearing of Hillary Clinton's use of private mails again has calmed markets.

Key Quotes

“Both national polls and state polls suggest a very close race with Hillary Clinton still slightly ahead. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Trump has a 34% chance of winning the presidential election. While the Republicans seem likely to retain the majority in the House, it is going to be close who will win the Senate.

The closer the election is, the longer we will have to wait for a final result. Looking at the 2012 election, most media declared Obama the winner between 5:12-5:38 CET, which was around the time the results for Ohio and North Carolina were called. At this election it seems difficult for Donald Trump to win if he does not get Florida (poll closing time: 01.00 CET), Ohio (01.30 CET) and North Carolina (01.30 CET). Consequently, we will most likely know who the next president is before 06:00 CET but we cannot rule out a scenario where we do not know the final result before later.

In 2012, the Senate was called to be Democratic at 5:43 CET. The House was called at 07:30 CET. This time, most of the key battlefields in the Senate are in states located in the mid and the east - hence, the result could be called a bit earlier in this election.”