Key US economic events ahead – Nomura

Analyst at Nomura present brief insights on the upcoming key macro events from the US docket lined up later today.

Key Quotes:

“ADP employment report: In line with our forecast for BLS private payrolls, we expect ADP private employment to have gained an additional 170k jobs in October.”

FOMC meeting: “At the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting, the Committee left the federal funds rate target unchanged at 0.25-0.50%. However, the minutes to the meeting and fed official remarks since the meeting suggest that it was a ‘close call’.”

“Incoming data (e.g., steady growth and inflation numbers) will likely keep the Committee on track to raise rate this year. However, we think that it will “sit out” the November meeting and leave rates unchanged, as it is only a few days before the election. We do not expect major changes to its policy statement.”

“However, there is some risk that the Committee adjusts its language to send a stronger signal that a rate hike is likely in December.”