UK: Focus on public finances data today – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that with next month’s UK public finances data coming out just the day before the Autumn Statement (23 Nov.) this September data will be effectively the last read on the deficit that analysts get before compiling expectations for any revisions to the 2016-17 financing requirement of the government.

Key Quotes

“If this September data confirms the story of the year thus far, to us that would imply borrowing is about £6bn adrift of where it ought to be half way through the financial year. As we discussed recently though, there are lots of moving parts to consider for the Autumn Statement including macroeconomic forecast revisions, fiscal policy loosening and changes to the privatisation plan. But for this September data release we look for the core measure of borrowing (PSNB ex Banking Groups) to be £8bn.”