FX market ignores last US presidential debate, Trump chances all but finished?

The Forex market was non-reactive to the last US presidential debate, with most of the moves seen prior to the event, following a major disappointment in Australia's Sept employment report. 

The Mexican Peso, as a barometer of the US presidential debate outcome, traded in a tepid manner, consolidating near day lows around the 18.5350, suggesting that the market remains quite comfortable having priced in an eventual Clinton win, as the most recent polls indicate. 

Clinton with a 9 point lead pre-debate

According to CNN: "A new national poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 9 points heading into the third and final presidential debate." CNN adds: "Clinton leads Trump 47% to 38% in a four-way race. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 8% support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein registered 3%, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll released." 

Even Irish bookmakers Paddy Power are paying out to customers who backed Hillary Clinton to win the US election, the Telegraph reported earlier this week. "The bookmakers are paying out over £800,000, gambling on Donald Trump’s election campaign being all but finished. Other bookmakers all make Mrs Clinton the strong favourite", the report notes. 

G10 FX non responsive to last US presidential debate

In the G10 FX space, the Australian Dollar was the worst performer, although the move was induced after the Australian jobs miss, with the Japanese Yen following suit, as the environment remained risk friendly, with strong gains seen in the Nikkei 225, up 0.91%, tracking Wall Street gains. The S&P500 benhcmark index saw solid gains, and the futures are now up by 0.15%, while the US Treasury yields also traded to the upsde, as investors dumped bonds to re-engage in riskier assets (equities, US Dollar, Kiwi...). Meanwhile, the Euro exchanged hands sub 1.10, with plenty of bids still capping the downside below 1.0960 ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision. As per Cable, it was a non-mover, confined in a small range sub 1.23, which has proven a formidable resistance. 

Highlights from today's US debate 

In today's US debate, Clinton remained calm and presidential, while Trump was also more contained despite his sporadic interrumptions, as has been the norm since the first debate. Clinton also cut some of Trump's interventions, but to a lesser degree. Both candidates put on, by far, the best performances, with Trump much better than his first debate, while Clinton remained strong.

One of the key moments that may play against Trump was when he said that he may doubt the results on election day if Clinton wins, implying that the process may be rigged. That kind of talk is not going to play in his favour, as voters don't like to hear these type of mistrust comments from someone who is seeking the role of being the President of the US. 

Another highlight of the night was when Clinton called Trump a 'puppet' of Russian President Putin. About the latest wikileak documents released, Cliton aimed for Trump to acknowledge and condemn the Russian espionage against America, with Clinton suggesting, based on US intelligent reports, that Russia is behind most of the documents wikileaks has obtained against her, trying to avoid talking about the issue. Trump then attacked back by noting that Putin has outsmarted her at every step of the way. 

Other topics of interest during today's denate were gun control measures, the role of the supreme court, the delicate issue of abortion, immigration took center stage, nuclear power escalation, the economic conditions, sexual assaults by Trump (who he denied), private email server, the Syrian war and how to end it, and lastly, the national debt an entitlements, which remains at catastrophic levels.