US: It’s all about the employment data – SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the US ADP survey didn’t point to an exciting NFP outcome, but it often doesn’t.

Key Quotes

“The nonmanufacturing ISM data on the other hand, were unambiguously strong and a simple regression points to 2.3% Q3 growth and a 5% growth rate in September, setting up a strong start to Q4. That doesn’t tell me much about what the data will really do but it does support the notion that the economy is trundling along at a steady pace rather than losing momentum. And while that growth rate underwhelms almost everyone, it does grind the unemployment rate down.

Tomorrow’s wage data will be significant. As for today, it’s just jobless claims and G20. Nothing to push bond and FX market directly, but if the Asian equity rally carries over into Europe and the US,  that will continue to underpin yields talk of a December rate hike, and the dollar.”