US: GDP and trade balance in the limelight today - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the investors will be focussing on the release of the US Q2GDP numbers and trade deficit numbers in addition to the pending home sales, jobless claims and Fed speak.

Key Quotes

“The Advance Goods Trade balance is expected to deteriorate in August due to the combination of rising imports and a modest decline in export activity. TD looks for the trade deficit to rise from $58.8bn to $61.8bn while the market expects a larger deficit of $62.2bn.

Markets look for Q2 GDP to be revised upwards by 0.2% to an annualized 1.3% q/q. PCE is expected to be unchanged at 4.4%, as favourable revisions to exports and business inventories should drive the improvement in growth.

Jobless claims should push higher for the week ending September 24 due to less favourable calendar effects. TD looks for claims to climb from 252k to 262k, above the market consensus of 260k.

Markets look for pending home sales to remain unchanged in August and expect a similar unchanged print for August wholesale inventories.

Turning attention to the Fed, a number of senior officials are due to make public appearances, including: Yellen, Powell, Lockhart, Harker and Kashkari, However, Harker’s speech is the only one being billed as an economic outlook.”