NZD/USD: bulls face set-backs ahead of RBNZ

NZD/USD is currently better offered back below the 1hr 200 sma.

NZD/USD dropped from 0.7180 in a strong downside drift with supply knocking the bird of its perch and ending its minor recovery from nonfarm payrolls lows of 0.7087. We are of course awaiting the RBNZ, tipped to cut interest rates. "We expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bp to 2.0% at Thursday's Monetary Policy Statement, and to signal further easing via both the policy paragraph and a 30bp reduction in its interest rate projection," explained analysts at Westpac. This will be tomorrow's main event, which for the day ahead, focus is back on Australia with Stevens speaking.

How volatile has NZD/USD been?

2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is presently at 62 pips and expanding on the hourly NZD/USD chart, while the ATR (14) is currently at 16 pips. 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 359 pips and shrinking on a daily chart. Over the last four weeks, the average movement for the present session has been 16 pips per hour. Further, today’s peak period for volatility was between 4:00-5:00 GMT, which saw an average movement of 28 pips over the previous four week period.

What price levels and patterns have to be considered?

Current price is 0.7152, with resistance ahead at 0.7156 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.7160 (Daily Classic R1), 0.7162 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.7174 (Weekly Classic PP) and 0.7182 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7148 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7146 (Yesterday's High), 0.7139 (Daily Open), 0.7138 (Weekly Low) and 0.7131 (Daily 20 SMA).