UK CPI inflation: The calm before the storm – RBS

Ross Walker, Research Analyst at RBS, suggests that the EU referendum result and ensuing market disruption are unlikely to have any material impact on the UK inflation data for June.

Key Quotes

“Underlying trends in wage inflation and firms’ pricing behaviour suggest an ongoing subdued inflation environment. Short term survey data also point to broadly stagnant inflation in June. We forecast CPI inflation to stabilise in June on both the headline (0.3%) and core (1.2%) measures. Wage inflation is forecast to edge up in May, but will remain a long way shy of the rates consistent with the 2% CPI inflation target.”