Aussie jobs preview: what to expect in AUD/USD?

AUD/USD remains within a bullish and ascending channel from the 0.74 handle to 0.7657 highs, oscillating in early Asia around the 0.76 level ahead of the jobs data on the way today as the main event in Asia. 

AUD/USD has been a choppy ascent of a bid since late June trade, recovering from the supply at the mid-point of the 0.76 handle. The economy in a snap-shot has an unemployment rate of 5.7 % with an inflation rate of 1.35% and economic growth at 3.1%, heavily dependent on the services sector in respect of output. Essentially, the RBA is on hold though while solid growth is offsetting that low inflation number, However, the market waits on the jobs numbers each month and for today, we have the June employment data. Analysts at Westpac noted that it is currently running at a 2%yr pace, which is in line with the job index and enough to steady unemployment."A 12k gain for jobs is expected, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.7%."

AUD/USD levels to monitor

"The price has reentered the daily ascendant trend line briefly surpassed on Tuesday, and the 1 hour chart presents a moderate downward potential, as the price is pressuring a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head south around their mid-lines," as explained by Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart, the price is holding above a bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators have turned south within positive territory after posting lower highs, increasing the risk of a bearish extension for this Thursday." 

On a positive outcome, 0.7640 could be challenged that would make way for a test of the 11th July highs of 0.7657 ahead of 0.7680 resistance before the psychological 0.77 handle. The downside and below the 20 sma on that 4hr chart opens the 50 sma on the same time frame at 0.7533 and the 100 sma at 0.7492.  The 200 sma is located at 0.7429 on the 4hr and guards the 29th of June lows of 0.7371.