5 Dec 2013
Flash. Macro factors to keep AUD depressed in 2014 - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Bali) - Macro factors suggest that the AUD should be biased
lower in 2014, according to Sally M Auld and Ben K Jarman, FX Strategists at JP Morgan Securities in Australia.
Key Quotes
"Rate differentials will narrow a bit further, Chinese growth should slow and commodity prices will be less of a support in the year ahead."
"However, we expect Australian export volumes to remain strong and domestic economic growth to pick up in 2H14. These mitigating factors suggest that the decline in the AUD could be quite gentle. We see AUD/USD at 0.92 by Jun-14 and 0.90 by Dec-14."
"We think risks to the AUD are largely balanced. Starting with positive surprises, we identify three key upside risks for the AUD in 2014. First, a genuine upside surprise to the domestic economic outlook. The second (and related) risk would be a meaningful shift in the domestic interest rate cycle The third risk comes in the form of a stronger Chinese growth outcome, and higher commodity prices and volumes."
lower in 2014, according to Sally M Auld and Ben K Jarman, FX Strategists at JP Morgan Securities in Australia.
Key Quotes
"Rate differentials will narrow a bit further, Chinese growth should slow and commodity prices will be less of a support in the year ahead."
"However, we expect Australian export volumes to remain strong and domestic economic growth to pick up in 2H14. These mitigating factors suggest that the decline in the AUD could be quite gentle. We see AUD/USD at 0.92 by Jun-14 and 0.90 by Dec-14."
"We think risks to the AUD are largely balanced. Starting with positive surprises, we identify three key upside risks for the AUD in 2014. First, a genuine upside surprise to the domestic economic outlook. The second (and related) risk would be a meaningful shift in the domestic interest rate cycle The third risk comes in the form of a stronger Chinese growth outcome, and higher commodity prices and volumes."