Latest Update: Cable Dips Below 1.40 But Next Hour Favours Remain - TDS

TD Securities’ model range includes both Leave and Remain, adding that for the first time tonight, their two forecast models point to different results.

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For the first time tonight, our two forecast models point to different results, with the lower bound at 49.6% support for Remain and the upper bound deteriorating to 50.8%. Betting odds too have moved strongly to 67% in favour of a Leave result, and ITV have forecasted a 75% chance of a Leave win. Of the votes cast so far, 48.6% are for Remain.

We now have over 160 of the 382 voting areas reporting, with 34.4% of votes cast, and turnout holding above 70%. There are still some strong Remain areas that were due to report earlier tonight, which should provide a boost to Remain support in the next hour, but at this point, it remains too close to call the final tally.