NZD looks topped up around current levels - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, suggests that the NZD looks toppy up around current levels (TWI 75.5).

Key Quotes

“But until we see a material turn in risk sentiment, a change in the market’s perception towards the Fed, or the tenor of domestic data roll – leading to a revisiting of rate cut expectations – a ‘stronger for longer’ currency theme will dominate.

Of those three possible catalysts the first offers the greatest potential in the near term, with Brexit fears reinforcing ample financial and political risk. We’re in the containment camp and expect any dips to be supported. NZD/AUD still looks prone to squeezing higher.

Positioning

Speculators remain long the NZD, having added to positions last week according to CFTC data. Short positioning in the AUD points to the potential for a NZD/AUD correction lower. However, other position shifts elsewhere cloud the picture, with EUR and GBP shorts building ahead of the Brexit vote, and USD longs lifting sharply (albeit to only moderate levels by historic comparison).”