US: Democratic Party looks more unified than the Republicans - BBH

Research Team at BBH, notes that in an important political development from the US, Clinton has secured the Democratic Party's nomination and next month she will officially become the first woman to head a major party's ticket.

Key Quotes 

“The vast majority of polls point to Clinton winning the national contest in December. The electoral college map suggests she may do better than Obama in 2012.   

Sanders has not officially conceded, but he is expected to after the last primary (Washington, DC on June 14).  Despite the apparent acrimony, the Democratic Party looks more unified than the Republicans.  However, to secure the enthusiasm of Sanders supporters, Clinton may have to make several concessions, including parts of the party platform.    

The PredictIt events market continues to show that Elizabeth Warren is the favored vice-presidential candidate.  Even though her 30 cents (to win $1.00) leads the other potential candidates and is a new high for Warren, we suspect that Clinton will not pick her.  She would not add very much to the ticket.  Clinton appears to be drawing more Hispanic and African-American vote than Obama did in 2012.  That suggests a young male Hispanic might not bring as much to the ticket as it may have appeared earlier in the process. We think a white male senator from a swing state like Virginia makes sense.   

Meanwhile, many Republican officials have been critical of Trump's statements about the nationality and religion of judges.  It is difficult to get a strong sense of who would serve with Trump.  PredictIt has the Jeff Sessions, a Republican Senator for Alabama, moving past Gingrich as the favorite, but at a soft 27 cents.  Gingrich has slipped to 17 cents from 25 cents earlier this month. Joni Ernst, a first-term Senator from Iowa, is in third place at 12 cents."