Brexit heating up: euro is taking the lead so far - BTMU

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo mitsubishi explained that they believe that the pound started to more seriously discount Brexit risk towards the end of last year. 

Key Quotes:

"The changing perception of Brexit risk and uncertain referendum outcome is resulting in a more volatile pound in the near-term. 

The euro has strengthened more against the pound than the US dollar so far this year. The differential in performance is primarily Brexit related providing a rough estimate of the size of the risk premium which we estimate at just over 5%."

"As we move closer to the day of the referendum, market participants will increase their focus on how the results will be released. The polling stations will be open from 7am to 10pm on the 23rd June. There will be no official exit polls. In the last general election, the exit polls provided an accurate leading indicator for the final results. According to the Electoral Commission, the count processes will then be carried out overnight starting at the close of the poll at 10pm. The results from 382 Counting Officers will be declared, one for each local government area in Great Britain plus one for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar."