EUR/USD inter-markets: door open for a test of 1.1615?

The rally in EUR/USD seems everything but abated for the time being, gaining around three cents since pre-Payrolls levels around the 1.1100 neighbourhood to test the 1.1400 handle during the European afternoon.

The ongoing up move in the pair remains propped up by the persistent bearish sentiment around the greenback, which is giving no signs of losing momentum so far. USD has breached the 93.50 level when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), region last visited in early May.

A brutal drop in Fed Fund rate contracts following Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls remains the almost exclusive catalyst behind the USD-sell off, while the CME Group’s FedWatch tool places a probability of a rate hike in June just below 4% and around 26% for the month of July. It seems the summer will see no hike.

German Bund yields have been also lending support to EUR, especially in the belly of the curve, prompting the spread with its US peer to move in favour of the common currency.

Furthermore, the rally in crude oil prices has pushed the barrel of Brent above to multi-month peaks beyond the $52.00 mark, all giving extra wings to the pair’s climb.

That said, with no relevant releases expected in the US for the rest of the week and with a June rate hike already ‘off the table’ at next week’s FOMC meeting, a re-test of YTD top at 1.1615 seems feasible in the short run.