US Elections: All eyes on June 7 California Democratic Party primary - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the political event that is on US investors' radar screens is the June 7 California Democratic Party primary. 

Key Quotes

“The Republican race that looked so contentious is long over.  Trump has won, and after what seemed like an extended period, perhaps of considering other options, the Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan finally endorsed Trump.  This was the Republican establishment recognizing that Trump had secured the party's nomination.  

It is the Democratic race that is still being fought.  Despite the funds and organization, Clinton has simply not been able to lock up sufficient delegates.  That will come to an end in California. The polls show a tight race, but the events markets are clearly betting that Clinton wins (PredictIt has Clinton at 68 cents--meaning you wager 68 cents to get a $1 if she wins).   There is some precedent for Sanders to continue to fight until the vote at the July convention.  That is what Ted Kennedy did to Jimmy Carter in 1980, for example.

Assuming Clinton wins, look for her to get a bump in the national polls.  This is common pattern and one that appears to have seen Trump's move a bit higher in the polls. It will be important to see how much Sanders can negotiate for in securing his agenda. His people are already fighting with the composition of the platform committee. 

Higher profile is the vice presidential candidate.  It would not go to Sanders but a Senator or Governor that supported him or shares some of his basic principles.  We see more talk of Senator Warren (who PredictIt has as the leading candidate, edging out the Tim Kaine, the Senator from Virginia that some polls put as the top choice).”