US: Yellen's speech is the main feature - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the main feature is Yellen's speech at Harvard's Radcliffe Day at 1:15 PM ET. 

Key Quotes

“Her comments are particularly important because many recall her speech two months ago in NY, where she put the kibosh on the talk from several regional presidents about an April hike. 

However, even though some are expecting her to be dovish again, we think the risks lie in the other direction.  If anything, she confirms that conditions for another rate hike are nearly in place.  There are two things that are different this time.  First, Dudley confirmed that a June-July rate hike looked appropriate.  For Yellen to lean in the opposite direction now strikes us as unprecedented.  Second, it is not just the regional presidents, but Fed Governor Powell also was on message. 

That said, we see asymmetrical risk.  Confirmation of what is already understood might not create a strong market reaction even if it was not ahead of a long holiday weekend for the UK and US.  As intimated, the market would likely respond stronger if Yellen was, in fact, dovish and contradicted the NY Fed President and a Governor.  The dollar would suffer quickly (more than it would rise on reiterating what has already been said).”