Yellen unlikely to say anything that could guide markets – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that today's speech by Fed Chair Yellen (19:15 CET) concludes a week that has been heavy on speeches by FOMC members.

Key Quotes

“Yellen speaks at Harvard's Radcliffe Day but based on the agenda it seems unlikely she will say anything that could guide markets. Investors will nonetheless be looking for clues on whether the Fed might hike in June or July. Our base case is still a September hike as we believe the Fed will err on the side of caution. However, judging from recent comments by FOMC members, the risk of an earlier hike is increasing. Yesterday, Jerome Powell (voter, neutral) said that 'another rate increase may be appropriate fairly soon', although he added that the upcoming UK referendum on whether to remain in the EU could be a reason to wait.

The second estimate for US Q1 GDP is released at 14:30 CET. At 0.5% q/q, the first reading was weak, and since we do not expect any major revisions, today's release is unlikely to change that conclusion.”