BoC to maintain status quo on rates – Unicredit

Research Team at Unicredit, suggests that the BoC will meet on Wednesday, and is expected to leave the overnight rate at 0.50%.

Key Quotes

“Given the remarks by governor Stephen Poloz since the last meeting in mid-April, his prudent stance should be reaffirmed as well. The BoC also announced that it will make an early assessment of the economic impact of the recent Alberta wildfires; other topics, such as a change of the inflation target, as discussed in its BoC Spring Review, are unlikely to be on the agenda. The bank may stress again downside risks, reiterating that the strong currency (the TW CAD is still over 12% higher than in mid-January) could be a drag on exports.

On balance, the CAD is likely to remain somewhat weak in the near term as the stronger USD weighs on oil prices; however, we remain comfortable with our call for a lower USD-CAD (1.25 by year-end) due to significant overvaluation – currently around 11% according to our estimates.”