China: FX data posted modest gain in April - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the Chinese FX data posted a further modest gain in April, driven by valuation gains as the Euro rallied.

Key Quotes

“Trade data posted sluggish import and export data but everyone’s eyes are drawn to the huge jump in imports from Hong Kong that suggests on-going capital flight. As the dollar’s correction runs out of steam and valuations effects stop boosting FX reserves, so concern will increase again. Likewise, when the current bout of policy support for growth fades, concern about the gradual economic slowdown will return too. None of this is imminent, but it’s inevitable all the same.”

China: The economy’s L-Shaped growth path – ING

Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, suggests that a People’s Daily article has people thinking that further stimulus is off the table and ING is reviewing their forecast of two more 25bp PBOC policy rate cuts.
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China: Trade and reserves data allayed fears - ING

Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, credits the PBOC’s steadier USDCNY fixing policy for stemming capital outflows and is reviewing their 6.47 yearend USDCNY forecast for upward revision.
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