3 May 2016
USD longs dropped even further - Rabobank
Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, lists down the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 26 April 2016.
Key Quotes
• “Despite the dovish position of the ECB, speculators have reduced their net EUR shorts for six consecutive weeks. They now stand at less than a quarter of the size at the start of the year.
• Net USD longs dropped even further last week. Positions are at their lowest since June 2014 just prior to the sharp increase in USD buying in H2 2014.
• JPY longs dipped moderately ahead of last week’s BoJ meeting. They have recently pushed up to multi year highs suggesting that talk of FX intervention has not been taken seriously. The yen has surged in the spot market following the BoJ’s steady policy decision last week.
• Net sterling shorts have lost some ground. The previous week they had climbed to their highest point since June 2013. GBP remains vulnerable to political uncertainty ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership. Although the better position of the ‘Remain’ camp in the opinion polls had recently lent the pound some support, this appears to be slipping again.
• Net CHF long positions slipped a touch. The previous week they moved to their strongest levels since June 2015. The SNB last month reiterated its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF, though new legislation in the US may question the SNB’s resolve.
• Net AUD long positions increased for a six consecutive week on optimism around the domestic economic outlook and stronger iron ore prices, though the RBA rate cut has thrown the cat into the pigeons. CAD net positions held in positive territory for a fourth consecutive week. Oil remains a key influence.”
Key Quotes
• “Despite the dovish position of the ECB, speculators have reduced their net EUR shorts for six consecutive weeks. They now stand at less than a quarter of the size at the start of the year.
• Net USD longs dropped even further last week. Positions are at their lowest since June 2014 just prior to the sharp increase in USD buying in H2 2014.
• JPY longs dipped moderately ahead of last week’s BoJ meeting. They have recently pushed up to multi year highs suggesting that talk of FX intervention has not been taken seriously. The yen has surged in the spot market following the BoJ’s steady policy decision last week.
• Net sterling shorts have lost some ground. The previous week they had climbed to their highest point since June 2013. GBP remains vulnerable to political uncertainty ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership. Although the better position of the ‘Remain’ camp in the opinion polls had recently lent the pound some support, this appears to be slipping again.
• Net CHF long positions slipped a touch. The previous week they moved to their strongest levels since June 2015. The SNB last month reiterated its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF, though new legislation in the US may question the SNB’s resolve.
• Net AUD long positions increased for a six consecutive week on optimism around the domestic economic outlook and stronger iron ore prices, though the RBA rate cut has thrown the cat into the pigeons. CAD net positions held in positive territory for a fourth consecutive week. Oil remains a key influence.”