26 Nov 2013
Flash: AUD/USD, hard to get too bearish from 0.92 - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Westpac FX Team, AUD/USD should hold in a rough 0.90-0.91 range with some short term upside potential, yet 0.9270 is likely to be very strong resistance, especially early in the week, the bank said.
Key Quotes
"While last week we noted that we expected RBA Governor Stevens to take another verbal swing at AUD, the extent of its decline over the full week has surprised us. It is more than just a USD move, with trade-weighted AUD falling sharply last week to lows dating to early Sep."
"The outlook for Chinese growth and commodities hasn’t really changed and Australia’s data calendar has been quiet so we find it hard to get too bearish from the 0.92 area."
"The US is effectively on a half week so ‘taper talk’ should be on the backburner over Thanksgiving, tightening AUD/USD trading ranges. But Australia’s Q3 capex report (Thu) is unlikely to help AUD’s cause."
Bottom line, we still like the pair higher on a one month view given our Fed outlook, but short term risks remain into data this week and RBA next week."
Key Quotes
"While last week we noted that we expected RBA Governor Stevens to take another verbal swing at AUD, the extent of its decline over the full week has surprised us. It is more than just a USD move, with trade-weighted AUD falling sharply last week to lows dating to early Sep."
"The outlook for Chinese growth and commodities hasn’t really changed and Australia’s data calendar has been quiet so we find it hard to get too bearish from the 0.92 area."
"The US is effectively on a half week so ‘taper talk’ should be on the backburner over Thanksgiving, tightening AUD/USD trading ranges. But Australia’s Q3 capex report (Thu) is unlikely to help AUD’s cause."
Bottom line, we still like the pair higher on a one month view given our Fed outlook, but short term risks remain into data this week and RBA next week."