Stalling crude oil price a risk for CAD – BNPP

Oil strategists at BNP Paribas, thinks that the post-Doha bounce in oil prices is unlikely to be sustained and that disruption to supply relating to the Kuwait strike could end quickly.

Key Quotes

“Brent crude prices have stalled this morning presenting a risk especially for the likes of CAD which yesterday reached new highs vs the USD not seen since July 2015 at1.2631. The FX market is now holding net long CAD (and AUD) exposure for the first time since 2014.

So far, these recoveries have drawn only mild push back from central bankers including speeched yesterday by both RBA abnd BoC governors. While domestic central bank policy is a neutral factor for the commodity bloc now, we think these currencies remain vulnerable to a setback in commodity prices and/or renewed financial market stress.

Risk reward remains increasingly attractive for USDCAD longs and AUDUSD shorts, and we also remain exposed to AUD downside via an AUDNZD short recommendation and a long EURAUD derivatives recommendation. USDCAD is trading well below our end Q2 forecast of 1.35. Today, energy markets will focus on weekly inventory data from the US EIA.”